Wednesday, November 9, 2016

How Did I Do?

"If I ever go to Vegas, you're coming with me."
- Red Bank, TN Mayor John Roberts
To me, on election night as I walked him through the states and the votes for Trump.
Overall,  my predictions went pretty well...

My predictions, written out last week, and blogged Monday, were -

1. State Representative, District 57
Susan Lynn (R) x Trisha Farmer (D)
I voted - write in candidate.
Prediction: Susan Lynn wins with around 70% of the vote.
Actual: Susan Lynn wins with 69% of the vote.

2. Mt. Juliet Mayor
Jim Bradshaw x Ed Hagerty
Both lean heavily R.
I voted - Bradshaw (would be fine with either man)
Prediction: Hagerty with around 55% of the vote.
Actual: Hagerty wins with 55% of the vote.

3. US Congress, Tennessee District 6
Diane Black (R) x David Kent (D) x David Ross (L)
I voted - David Ross
Prediction: Black with about 60% of the vote.
Actual: Black wins with 71% of the vote.

4. US President
Trump (R) x Clinton (D)
I voted - Trump
Prediction: Trump wins Tennessee with about 60% of the vote.
Trump wins the White House with over 300 electoral votes.
Actual: Trump wins with 306 Electoral Votes.
Trump wins Tennessee with 61% of the vote.

Summary - I missed the exact percentage by which Black would win to the tune of about 10%. That's a mea culpa. I overestimated dissatisfaction with her being a RINO.

Other than that, it was on the money. How, you ask? I have good sources. For local races, I fall back on historical voting records. Lynn got about the same as she (or the Republican holding that office) always gets. Black got a bit more. Haggerty was a gut instinct, based on talk around town.

My sources on the national level... well, now, that's another blog post for you!

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