Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Why Polls Don't Matter

Polls don't matter.

Maybe, at some point in time in the past, they did. When information wasn't shared instantly around the globe. When one read the newspaper. When one learned growing up how to tell feeling from thinking and the media knew you knew the difference.

Not today. Today, information is abundant. It's instantaneous. And the general population is dumber for it. Critical thinking skills are antiquated. Half the folks reading this must look up the word "antiquated." Knowledge is no longer held in high regards.

And this is why polls don't matter anymore. People knew which candidate they were voting for no later than the end of the conventions. And if, by chance, a person wasn't yet convinced, they are really too stupid to vote. They probably won't vote. Same for anyone who is truly wavering between one candidate and the other.

So, when you see poll numbers differ from one day to the next, know that it's not really indicative of any minds being changed. It's indicative of other factors altogether. Factors that won't affect the outcome of the vote.

Two main factors not taken into account when polling -
1. The oppression factor.
Being conservative puts a target on you for vindictive behavior. Nobody wants to be attacked - verbally or physically - so many who will vote for Trump will not answer polls. The same is not true in the other direction, however.

2. The motivation factor.
Hillary's base is not very motivated right now. Most of them cannot stand her. They wanted Bernie. They aren't going to show to vote. Meanwhile, Trump's supporters are very motivated. The media is out to get him, the Republicans are out to get him, and Hillary is out to get him. America loves an underdog. America loves a man who says it like they see it. Trump is that man, and his followers are motivated to vote for him.

It's going to be a Trumpslide.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Your comment will be displayed after approval.
Approval depends on what you say and how you say it.