Monday, August 1, 2016

Election Prediction

The RNC and DNC are wrapped up. Now comes the campaigning and debates. And the prognostication. That's what this is. A way-too-early prediction of how things will pan out, in my opinion, of course. The way I see it, there are three main factors that will determine this election: community organization, voter passion, and the ever-important scandals and missteps.

Community Organizing
Obama was a community organizer by trade. It's no surprise that his campaign was masterful in getting key voters to the polls in key precincts. Hillary has no such ability, and the Obama campaign is not likely to lend much help. This is not good for Hillary. It would not be a surprise to me if most (or even all) of the "swing states" wind up going to Trump: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida, etc.

Voter Passion
Liberals are not passionate about Hillary. They were passionate about Bernie. They were passionate about Obama. But this is their Romney. Nobody likes her. The solid blue base will vote for her, a few low-information voters will, too. That's about it. Hillary doesn't inspire voters - blue or independent.

Trump inspires voters. A lot of the voters who "stayed home" for Romney show up for Trump. He speaks to the people who have wished to have a politician in their corner. He inspires people who haven't been inspired in a long time... not too dissimilar to what Obama did for the left eight years ago.

Scandals and Missteps
Though this is the most difficult to predict, we have something here to go on. The liberal media has tried every way to make something - anything - stick to Donald Trump. Teflon Don has alpha responsed his way past them all... with ease! 

Meanwhile, Hillary has baggage. More baggage than any candidate in known history. Because of her, people have died, secrets have become compromised, and she is seen as the establishment of the left in a year where establishment candidates are eschewed. What's more, Bernie wins if the selection process had been truly democratic. This is not to be taken lightly.

Trump wins the Hispanic vote.
Trump wins the female vote.
Trump wins the white male vote.
Trump wins the conservative vote.
Trump wins the independent vote.

Hillary wins the black vote in the south.
Hillary wins the Democrat vote.

Millennial Blue voters stay home.
Cuckservative vote stays home.
Some of these vote 3rd party.

Trump wins in a landslide. Trumpslide!

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