Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Party Support

It's primary time - "Super Tuesday." This is the time in the primaries that the Presidential nominations are usually solidified.

On the Democrat side, Hillary Clinton is expected to clean up today. Despite the fact that nobody online is pushing for Clinton, minorities and others don't seem to want to #FeelTheBern. Perhaps more would have if Clinton's campaign hadn't engaged in shenanigans to get more delegates to this point?

Donald Trump is expected to dominate today. With the exception of Texas, which should be won by Cruz, all other states on the line are expected to go to Trump. If this holds true, then it would all but guarantee a Trump victory.

The establishment Republicans and the cuckservatives are literally screaming at this point. They are threatening to not show up for the general election. They are threatening to run a cuckservative as a 3rd party candidate. They really don't want Trump to win.

Of course, we were required to vote for the abortions of candidates that were Romney and McCain. Obama should have been destroyed at the polls, yet these two handed 2008 and 2012 over to him on a silver platter. Among the claims of the cuckservatives, now they are hitting on "Trump is not conservative enough."

Well, he's a helluva lot more conservative than the cuckservative posterboy, Jeb!

The Others
Cruz, while nobody doubts his conservative and liberty-based ideology, is demonstrating that he's less qualified to lead than Rubio.

Rubio is the new choice of the establishment... and master of the Mr. Roboto

Kasich is willing to cross the aisle the most... and is subsequently dead last among current contenders.

Carson won't speak up... and so people are forgetting about him.

I predict Carson and Kasich withdraw by week's end, if not tonight.

The Fun
If Trump gets the nod... and even if this causes most cuckservatives and establishment types to "stay home" in the general election, it won't matter. Those four million that stayed home in 2012? They will come out in force. The establishment comprises about 7% of all Republican votes.  However, Republican turnout is up over 20% so far this year.

Remember that in 2012, there was a lot of "cross-pollination" - Democrats voting in Republican primaries in a concerted attempt to try to get Romney nominated. That's not going to be the case this year as the Bernie-Hillary match up is close, and even Dems know their every vote counts this time out!

Simple math says if the establishment stays home in the general election, Republicans are still up 13%. In 2012, 2008, and 2004, an average of 60 million voted Republican. Add 13%, and you can expect at least 68 million Republican votes this fall.

Meanwhile, Democrat votes are down 25% so far this year, compared to 2012. Obama got about 69 million votes in 2008 and about 65 million in 2012. This trend puts the Democrat nominee at roughly 60-62 million votes this fall. Maybe even as little as 57 million... Democrats can be very Belle weather - they know they will lose, so they won't even turn out.

So, stay home, cuckservatives. The rest of us don't need you. You haven't won an election for our side in my lifetime, and this year won't be different.

Republicans win in a landslide if Trump is on the ticket.

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