Friday, March 4, 2016

One In Four

1 in 4 women experience sexual assault on college campus during their four years of college.

You've heard that line before, but we are going to challenge that today.

First off - if you really thought that was the case, why on earth would you not only permit, but outright encourage, your daughter to go to college??? No amount of education would be worth that. And why aren't there colleges out there advertising that they only have a 10% rape probability?

During the  Vietnam War, approximately 5% of active troops were killed by the enemy. That's 8,744,000 active troops during the War, and 47,359 hostile deaths,  according to the link. So much so that a great number of people actively attempted to avoid being drafted. One of the more notable draft dodgers was the 42nd President, pictured above.

It is fitting that Clinton is pictured in an article about sexual assault statistics, don't you think?

So people flee going to war when there is a 1 in 20 chance of getting killed, yet want free admission to college where there's a "1 in 4" chance of getting raped?

I don't get that... please explain it to me.

Maybe we should just teach men not to rape...

Of course, if we did that, then we need to teach women not to throw their babies in dumpsters:

But enough of all that foolishness, and back to the horrific subject matter at hand, rape.

 The FBI estimates 52.7 rapes are reported per 100,000 women per year. That's 0.0527%.
But wait, over 4 years, and assuming no victims are raped again, that would be 0.21%.

But the claim is 25%! 

From the FBI
The reality is, that not all of those rapes reported are actually rapes. In fact, a link at the bottom of the linked page demonstrates that 41.2% of those accused of rape are cleared. 8% of reported rapes are false, according to the FBI. That means of the 52.7 rapes reported per year,21.7 accused rapists get cleared - meaning only 31 reported rapes out of 100,000 women have a chance of being legitimate. But wait - not all of those not cleared wind up being prosecuted, much less convicted.

From Their Sources
According to  RAINN (not the most credible source, but let's use their numbers), 2 convictions will take place for every 32 accusations - 6.25%. Also, three prosecutions will happen for every 32 accusations - 9.4%. So let's apply this to the facts...

Put Them Together
So, if 6.25% of rape allegations are true (actually convicted), then simple math tells us that:
(0.0625 x 55.7) / 100,000 = 0.00329% of women are actually raped per year. Over four years, that's 0.013%.

And not all of those rapes happen on college campuses.

It is relatively safe to send your daughters to college - at least with regards to the probability she may get raped.

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