Monday, February 1, 2016

Fight Prediction

In just over a month, UFC Women's Bantamweight Champion, Holly Holm, will have her first title defense against Miesha Tate. Tate held the title back when it was in Strikeforce, but lost it to Ronda Rousey four years ago. Holm, of course, defeated Rousey for the belt back in November.

One of my martial arts students recently asked me who I thought would win. When I replied that I felt Holm would win, he asked how I figured it would play out. Would Tate keep it standing? Would Tate try to take Holm down?

So here's my prediction:
Holm will win, but it won't look "as convincing" to the casual fan. It might even be by decision.

The way I see it, Tate will not be able to take Holm down. Rousey tried for six minutes, and got her face smashed for her effort. Rousey is a much better takedown artist than Tate. Holm, meanwhile, has the world's best MMA coach in her corner and a lights - out takedown defense.

On the feet, Tate is a far better striker than Rousey will ever be. But as good as she is, she will never be as good as Holm is.  Holm is a masterful boxer, who is a true student of the science of the "sweet science." Holm also peppers precision kicks into her arsenal with expert timing.

The caveat is this... Rousey is an upper-body takedown specialist (Judo), while Tate is a lower-body takedown specialist (wrestling). Holm may not have faced as experienced a wrestler in the cage yet.

All that said, my prediction is a late KO by Holm. Probably after the midpoint of the 3rd round. Alternately, Tate does have a great chin (both in looks as well as ability to take a punch), so she may last to a decision.

How do you see it going down?

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