Corona Secrets

Corona Virus - COVID-19 - what aren't they telling you?

Mortality Rate
According to the CDC as of the morning of this article, fewer that 5% of reported cases result in death. 

What they aren't telling you is that a vast majority of those confirmed cases are people who are already sick - sometimes very sick.

This means the true mortality rate is much less than 5%. Perhaps (probably) a fraction of 1%.


Severity of Symptoms
The people you see on TV or the newspaper are always saying how devastating this virus is.  And for them, it probably feels that way. 

A good number of these people- dare I say a majority - already have a compromised immune system. Asthma, infection, diabetes, smokers, etc. Naturally a respiratory virus is going to hit them harder. 

A good number of these hit hard are just sissies.  There, I said it.  Fight me. 

What they aren't telling you is that according to reasonable estimates by multiple doctors, a majority of people who contract the virus show low-grade symptoms or no symptoms at all. 80% - 85% do NOT show severe symptoms.


The Spread
As the Chinese Virus is just that, a virus - it is spread like the common cold. A recent cruise ship had nearly 700 people test positive. Over half showed no symptoms.

Many states have ordered the closing of "nonessential" businesses, or "alternative business models." This gives many a false sense of hope.  And certainly, there are a lot of hand-wringers on social media calling for a complete lockdown. 

Let's be serious - there's no way a society that just had a frenzy run on toilet paper can survive two weeks without going out. 

And those who are self-quarantined are largely just fooling themselves. If they go out to get groceries, they are potentially exposed. If they have stuff delivered, they are potentially exposed. If they take ridiculous steps to "sanitize" - they are still potentially exposed. 

What they aren't telling you is that absent an absolute lockdown of at least 14-21 days, most will be exposed. 


Summary
All of this information leads to the question - why all the fuss? Well, preliminary data suggests that you are more likely to die of Corona virus than the flu or other infectious disease. 

According to official numbers (as of this morning) about 12.9% of hospitalizations for COVID-19 result in death.  By comparison, about 14% of hospitalizations for flu result in death.  In the world of mathematics,  that difference is generally regarded as statistical insignificance. 

But the news and the CDC aren't telling you these things.  You have to dig a bit. 

To be fair, there seems to be a slightly higher mortality rate with COVID-19 among those over age 60 as compared to the flu. Like the overall numbers, it is often a difference of only 1% - 3%.