How It Is Figured

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"That socialist, Phis Bredesen, is going to trounce Marsha Blackburn for the Senate seat this fall!!!"
- a Facebook rant by someone the Rifleman has met.

To be fair, this mindset is very prevalent.  Indeed, even  The Tennessean is stating much the same:
"Most signs point to a close race. The political website Real Clear Politics gives Bredesen a 4.5 percentage-point advantage over Blackburn, based on an average of polling in the race."

But below, in the same article, the Tennessean gives numbers that parlay a different story. 610K votes for Blackburn (84.5%),  348K for Bredesen (91.5%).   Almost a 2:1 ratio - 1.75:1 to be more precise.

In 2016, Trump beat Hillary in Tennessee: 1.517M votes (60%) to 867K (35%). That's 1.75:1 - the exact same ratio.  Virtually every presidential, gubernatorial, and senatorial election the last 10 years in Tenneessee has been a 60% - 35% win for the Republican. 

Following Bill Mitchell in 2016 as he predicted the Trump win - virtually state by state - taught the Rifleman a lot. Namely, primaries, prior elections, and percentages are important.  

The Rifleman predicts Blackburn to win with about 60% of the vote, compared to Bredesen's 35%. Book it. 


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